Claim: ”All climate models are crap and they have never even come close to showing what then became reality. Global warming has stopped and we are facing a cooling due to natural cycles. At least soon, very soon.”

Yes, that’s how it has sounded for a couple of decades now and it may well be appropriate to highlight considering that they rarely have to ”be accountable” for their firm statements while the IPCC gang is mocked, preferably with graphs comparing apples and pears.

First, a compilation of how the ”IPCC gang’s” climate models have performed (or read on Carbon Brief):

From IPCC AR6 report:

And here are some examples of predictions from so-called climate skeptics:

1998: Geologist Easterbrook predicts that the 21st century will begin with 30 years of cooling based on correlation to ”natural cycles”, read more on the blog WUWT Outcome: No.

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1999: Climate scientist Patrick Michaels at the Cato Institute predicts a statistically significant cooling between the peak year of 1998 (severe El Niño) and 2008. ”Second, I’ll take even money that the 10 years ending on December 31, 2007, will show a statistically significant global cooling trend in temperatures measured by satellite.” Outcome: No.

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2001: Physicist Fred Singer argues in Voice of America that there has been no warming since the 1940s and that we will hardly see any in the foreseeable future either. Outcome: Wrong.

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2001: Geologist Easterbrook (again) believes that the global cooling will start in 2007 (± 3-5 years). WUTW. Outcome: No.

Image from WUWT

2002: The think tank ACCF, with substantial conflicts of interest in the form of financing from oil companies, formed the subsidiary ICCF, which opened an office in Brussels and lobbied against the Kyoto protocol. One report predicted that in Germany alone, the number of jobs would fall ”by 1.0 million jobs annually during the 2008-2012 budget period” and GDP would hit the wall if the agreement was realized. Outcome: No.

(BBC, ABC News, Bloomberg, Reuters, MSNBC News and others relayed the information).

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2005: ”Solar scientists” Mashnich and Bashkirtsev believe that lower solar activity would cause the global average temperature to drop and made a bet with climate scientist James Annan on the matter. If the years 2012-2017 were warmer than the years 1998-2003, Annan would win. Outcome: Nope. It was about $10,000, Annan won but the Russian researchers apparently haven’t paid.

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2005: Willie Soon predicts, by curve fitting of data, an arctic cooling. : Outcome: Nope (Real Climate)

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2007: David Archibald publishes a prediction based on solar cycles that temperatures would drop by 2.1C by 2017. Outcome: No (but maybe it was because he is a CEO from the oil and mining industry and not a climate modeler?)

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2008: Easterbrook (again) proclaims that global warming was over, see the blog WUWT. ”The good news is that global warming (i.e., the 1977-1998 warming) is over and atmospheric CO2 is not a vital issue.” Outcome: Wrong.

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2008: Ian Plimer and Sir Alan Rudge, two advisers to the lobbying group GWPF, bet £1,000 with James Annan that 2015 would be colder than 2008. Outcome: No.

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2008: Bjørn Lomborg, in a way that is customary for him, picks out a couple of years of data to support completely ignoring long-term trends.

Outcome: Sea level rise accelerates.

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2009: Jay Lehr, science director at the Heartland Institute, sits on CNN and tells us that we are in a cooling zone and it will last for a couple of decades. Outcome: No.

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2009: Danish astrophysicist Svensmark, known for his hypothesis about cosmic rays/solar activity/cloud formation/temp, points out that a cooling had begun and according to his hypothesis it would continue. Outcome: It didn’t.

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2010: Fox News issues a warning for ice age based on a statement from Easterbrook (again). Outcome: No. (2011 was record hot)

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2011: McLean of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition claims that 2011 will be the coldest year since 1956 based on a 2009 article by de Freitas and Bob Carter (”celebrities” in this industry…). Outcome: No.

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2011: Loehle and Scarfetta publish an article that shows that the Earth’s climate is cyclical and is controlled by the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn (red below). A cooling down was supposed to start around 2010. ”A 21st Century forecast suggests that climate may remain approximately steady until 2030-2040, and may at most warm 0.5-1.0°C by 2100.” Lunge: Nope.

Image from Real Climate.

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2011: Meteorologist and frequent TV personality Joe Bastardi predicts an imminent cooling. You know the outcome.

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2011: Lindzen and Choi publish an article in a Korean journal (after initially being unanimously rejected in PNAS – two of the reviewers had Lindzen himself recommended). Concludes that a doubling of the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere gives a warming of 0.5-1.1°C. Outcome: prediction already passed by a long way despite only halfway to doubling.

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2012: Solheim, Humlum, Stordahl, 2012 publish an article predicting a cooling of 0.9°C in the northern hemisphere between 2009 and 2020 and a full 3.5°C decline on the norweigian islands Svalbard (based on a curve adaptation model they published the year before). Outcome: No.
(all three are members of the Norwegian Climate Realists and are scientific advisors to the lobby group GWPF).

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2012: Fritz Vahrenholt publishes the book Die kalte Sonne together with Sebastian Lüning. The book predicts the temperature development based on natural solar cycles until 2030. Outcome: Hm, not so good…

Image from Real Climate. Measurements of global temperature (NASA GISTEMP, moving average over 12 months) compared to the forecast for global temperature by 2030 by Vahrenholt and Lüning, after Figure 73 of their book. (Image by Stefan Rahmstorf, Creative Commons BY-SA 4.0.)

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2013: Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory: ‘We could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years’. The quote is from Forbes and can be found on blogs such as WUWT, Climate Depot (Marc Morano), Electroverse, Heartland and is taken from Voice of Russia so ”of course” it is peer reviwed and fact checked… Outcome: Still warming.

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2013: Curry & Wyatts publishes an article with their ”stadium wave” cycle (natural variations in ocean currents, etc.) and argued that the warming was over and the melting of the ice had stopped and that we would have a warming break until about 2030.

Wyatt apparently also said ‘The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s,’ Outcome: No.

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2013: Habibullo Abdussamatov published an article (in a perhaps not so respected journal) saying that a new Little Ice Age would start in 2015. Outcome: No.

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2013: Climate Scientist Prof. Anastasios Tsonis Predicts: ”I would assume something like another 15 years of leveling off or cooling” Outcome: Wrong assumption.

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2013: Patrick Michaels bets (again) that ”it’s a pretty good bet that we’re going to go nearly a quarter of a century without warming.” [The Washington Times, 1/17/13]. Outcome: No.

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2014: Mechanical engineer and blogger Kevin Long predicts that 2015 will be a warm year, but then comes a ”deep chill”. Outcome: No. 2016 was the warmest year measured so far, and the years after that are in the top five.

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2014: The mathematician David Evans presents (not in a scientific article but on his company’s website and on his wife’s JoNova’s blog) his strange Notch-Delay Solar Theory: due to unknown mechanism in the sun’s interior (sort of) the earth is flooded with energy of unknown origin (Force N, D and X) and which has never been measured but for some unknown reason shows a delayed effect of about 13 years (a solar cycle delay). His conclusion was ”and significant cooling, beginning 2017 or maybe as late as 2021”. Later postponed to 2024. Outcome: still waiting.

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2015 Astrophysicist Zharkova et al predict a new ”Little Ice Age” at 2030 based on a new hypothesis about solar cycles. Her predictions (in brown below) were out of phase even then.

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2016: Abdussamatov (again). His claim that the Ice Age would begin in 2015 had not been true, now he says that it will start this year instead. Outcome: Nope, again

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2017: Nuartev and Nuartev predict cooling, based on solar cycles, ”This actually will lead to a decrease of the temperature of 0.5 – 0.7°C in both averaged solar cycles, in Geneva will decrease to 1.5 °C. ” From the blog NoTrickZone which then posted seven ”new articles predicting global cooling due to solar cycles”. Outcome: Nope.

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2019: Klimatsans (Swedish blog) publish a post where retired researcher Nils-Axel Mörner says that the climate runs in 60-year cycles (30 years warming, 30 years cooling) that are controlled by the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn according to the curve adaptation article from Scarfetta (see 2011 above). The attached picture shows that cooling should have started in 2010 so maybe they should have thought about their evidence. Outcome: No.

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2020: Lobbyist Patrick Moore retweets a June 14 post about the temperature dropping, perhaps due to the Grand Solar Minimum, supported by a TV report showing that ice has formed in some places during the winter… ”2020 will go down as the year when Grand Solar Minimum started”.

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2022: Cancer researcher Javier Vinós, who has ventured into climatology, presented a new hypothesis (Wintergate keeper) that is completely at odds with the IPCC and the whole ”climate research community”. Predictions made in 2022 so far do not seem to be going so well..:

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And so on, and on and on and on and on ….

So what to do after predicting an imminent cooling over and over again and it has been exactly the opposite?

Well, you move the goalposts. The deceptive organization Clintel started a petition claiming that there is no climate crisis which most ”celebrities” in this game have signed up to, it states that: ”Therefore, it is no surprise that we are now experiencing a period of warming.”

Go figure!

See also this published article for a review of used climate models since the 70s: We found that climate models – even those published back in the 1970s – did remarkably well, with 14 out of the 17 projections statistically indistinguishable from what actually occurred.